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Middle East +
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Where do strained U.S.-Israeli relations go after Netanyahu’s victory?

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reacts as he visits the Western Wall in Jerusalem on March 18 following his party's victory in Israel's general election. (Thomas Coex/AFP/Getty Images) +
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By Steven Mufson + March 18 at 12:22 PM +
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President Obama told the U.N. General Assembly 18 months ago that he would + seek “real breakthroughs on these two issues — Iran’s nuclear program and + ­Israeli-Palestinian peace.”

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But Benjamin Netanyahu’s triumph in Tuesday’s + parliamentary elections keeps in place an Israeli prime minister who has + declared his intention to resist Obama on both of these fronts, guaranteeing + two more years of difficult diplomacy between leaders who barely conceal + their personal distaste for each other.

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The Israeli election results also suggest that most voters there support + Netanyahu’s tough stance on U.S.-led negotiations to limit Iran’s nuclear + program and his vow on Monday that there would be no independent Palestinian state as long + as he is prime minister.

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“On the way to his election victory, Netanyahu broke a lot of crockery + in the relationship,” said Martin Indyk, executive vice president of the + Brookings Institution and a former U.S. ambassador to Israel. “It can’t + be repaired unless both sides have an interest and desire to do so.”

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Aside from Russian President Vladi­mir Putin, few foreign leaders so brazenly + stand up to Obama and even fewer among longtime allies.

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged to form a new governing coalition quickly after an upset election victory that was built on a shift to the right. (Reuters) +
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In the past, Israeli leaders who risked damaging the country’s most important + relationship, that with Washington, tended to pay a price. In 1991, when + Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir opposed the Madrid peace talks, President + George H.W. Bush held back loan guarantees to help absorb immigrants from + the former Soviet Union. Shamir gave in, but his government soon collapsed.

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But this time, Netanyahu was not hurt by his personal and substantive + conflicts with the U.S. president.

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“While the United States is loved and beloved in Israel, President Obama + is not,” said Robert M. Danin, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign + Relations. “So the perceived enmity didn’t hurt the way it did with Shamir + when he ran afoul of Bush in ’91.”

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Where do U.S.-Israeli relations go from here?

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In the immediate aftermath of Tuesday’s elections, tensions between the + two sides continued to run hot. The Obama administration’s first comments + on the Israeli election came with a tough warning about some of the pre-election + rhetoric from Netanyahu’s Likud party, which tried to rally right-wing + support by saying that Arab Israeli voters were “coming out in droves.”

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“The United States and this administration is deeply concerned about rhetoric + that seeks to marginalize Arab Israeli citizens,” White House press secretary + Josh Earnest told reporters aboard Air Force One. “It undermines the values + and democratic ideals that have been important to our democracy and an + important part of what binds the United States and Israel together.”

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Earnest added that Netan­yahu’s election-eve disavowal of a two-state + solution for Israelis and Palestinians would force the administration to + reconsider its approach to peace in the region.

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Over the longer term, a number of analysts say that Obama and Netan­yahu + will seek to play down the friction between them and point to areas of + continuing cooperation on military and economic issues.

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“Both sides are going to want to turn down the rhetoric,” Danin said. + “But it is also a structural problem. They have six years of accumulated + history. That’s going to put limits on how far they can go together.”

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The first substantive test could come as early as this month, when the + United States hopes that it can finish hammering out the framework of an + agreement with Iran.

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Netanyahu strongly warned against making a “bad deal” during his March + 3 address to a joint meeting of Congress, an appearance arranged by Republican + congressional leaders and criticized by the Obama administration for making + U.S.-Israeli relations partisan on both sides so close to the Israeli election.

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If a deal is reached and does not pass muster with Netanyahu, he is likely + to work with congressional Republicans to try to scuttle the accord.

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“The Republicans have said they will do what they can to block a deal, + and the prime minister has already made clear that he will work with the + Republicans against the president,” Indyk said. “That’s where a clash could + come, and it’s coming very quickly.”

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The second test — talks with Palestinians — could be even more difficult. + In his September 2013 address to the United Nations, Obama hailed signs + of hope.

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“Already, Israeli and Palestinian leaders have demonstrated a willingness + to take significant political risks,” Obama said in his speech. Palestinian + Authority President Mahmoud Abbas “has put aside efforts to shortcut the + pursuit of peace and come to the negotiating table. Prime Minister Netanyahu + has released Palestinian prisoners and reaffirmed his commitment to a Palestinian + state.”

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Today, the signals could not differ more. The + Palestinian Authority has said that after it joins the International Criminal + Court at The Hague on April 1, it will press war crimes charges against + Israel for the bloody Gaza conflict during the summer. Israel, which controls + tax receipts, has pledged to punish the Palestinian Authority by freezing + its tax revenue.

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The United States, which gives hundreds of millions of dollars of economic + aid to the Palestinian Authority, would be caught in the middle. It has + been trying to persuade both sides to stand down, but Netanyahu’s declaration + that there would be no Palestinian state on his watch makes that more difficult.

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“Now it’s hard to see what could persuade the Palestinians” to hold up + on their ICC plans, Indyk said. “That has nothing to do with negotiations, + but if both sides can’t be persuaded to back down, then they will be on + a trajectory that could lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority + because it can’t pay wages anymore.

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“That could be an issue forced onto the agenda about the same time as + a potential nuclear deal.”

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Steven Mufson covers the White House. Since joining The Post, he has covered + economics, China, foreign policy and energy.
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